AI-driven displacement risk forecasting for Sudan

Description

This Terms of Reference (TOR) outlines the requirements for contracting a qualified service provider to design and implement a proof-of-concept AI-driven displacement risk forecasting model for Sudan, grounded in high-frequency, multi-source data integration and advanced analytical methods. Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe and complex displacement crises globally, driven by sustained armed conflict, economic collapse, disruption of basic services, environmental stressors, and rapidly shifting local security dynamics. Population displacements are highly fluid, multi-causal, and spatially heterogeneous, challenging traditional monitoring and planning approaches that rely on lagged data and static indicators. In this context, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) seeks to strengthen its anticipatory action, operational targeting, and early activation capacities by piloting an advanced displacement risk forecasting approach for Sudan. The initiative aims to complement existing displacement monitoring systems (Displacement Tracking Matrix) by developing forward-looking, analytically robust estimates of displacement risk, accompanied by systematic identification of the underlying drivers of change.