UNDP-ZAF-00183,1 - Socio-Economic Impact Simulation Model for LEDS Policy Interventions in SA - UNDP - SOUTH AFRICA

Tender summary

This specific tender is managed via the new supplier portal system of UNDP Quantum. If you are interested in submitting a bid for this tender, you must subscribe following the instructions in the user guide . If you have not registered a profile with this system, you can do so by following the link for Supplier Registration . If you already have a supplier profile, please access the negotiation using quicklink or please login to the Supplier Portal , then search for the negotiation using the reference number UNDP-ZAF-00183,1 , following the instructions in the user guide . Introduction SCOPE OF WORK The objective of this work is to develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and to determine how South Africa can best implement net-zero pathways while minimising or improving the impact on economic growth, employment, income inequality, and financial stability. The key outcomes of this work include a) developing a scientific model using a stochastic computable general equilibrium approach to analyze the socio-economic impacts of alternative pathways to net zero  by 2050, and b) providing recommendations on how to enhance the socio-economic benefits of alternative net zero pathways and address the negative impacts through just-transition. The selected firm will be expected to deliver the following outputs: 1. A comprehensive literature review will be conducted to understand the existing research on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modelling of the socioeconomic impacts of low-emissions development strategies globally, and with a detailed review of the DSGE modelling landscape of South Africa. 2. A DSGE model is built to replicate the South African economy to be used for the research questions at hand and for future studies. 3. A mechanism to estimate the biophysical impacts of climate change on macro-critical sectors, typically done under the CIMP6 climate ensembles and IPCC AR6 Summaries. SSP socioeconomic scenarios/RCP forcing scenarios are used to align the model with different emissions pathways. Damage channels translate climate shocks to generate the sectoral physical shocks that are projected to hit the economy under alternative pathways to net-zero (business-as-usual serving as a default reference scenario). The physical shocks are mapped to economic shocks. Alternative methods for incorporating the predicted impacts of climate change in modelling the business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory for important sectors could also be considered. 4. The climate damage data or shocks is coupled with the DSGE to generate the sectoral and socioeconomic impacts of climate change under alternative pathways to net-zero. 5. A curated dataset with worksheets of data used for calibrating the different stages of the sequential work above as well as the alternative pathways to net-zero is prepared. 6. Additionally, a training guide detailing the modelling approach, inputs and assumptions is prepared to develop the capacity of DFFE to utilize and calibrate the model internally for future modelling endeavors. A report presenting the estimation results of the socio-economic impact analysis that includes a comparison of alternative  pathways to net-zero weighed against a climate-impacted BAU, and policy recommendations for enhancing socio-economic benefits and addressing negative impacts. The key socioeconomic impacts to investigate are economic growth, poverty, inequality, employment and related pathways across the sectors and economic agents. Please indicate whether you intend to submit a bid by creating a draft response without submitting directly in the system. This will enable the system to send notifications in case of amendments of the tender requirements. Should you require further clarifications, kindly communicate using the messaging functionality in the system. Offers must be submitted directly in the system following this link: http://supplier.quantum.partneragencies.org using the profile you may have in the portal. In case you have never registered before, you can register a profile using the registration link shared via the procurement notice and following the instructions in guides available in UNDP website: https://www.undp.org/procurement/business/resources-for-bidders . Do not create a new profile if you already have one. Use the forgotten password feature in case you do not remember the password or the username from previous registration . Search for the specific tender using search filters and subscribe to the tender in order to get notifications in case of amendments of the tender document. If you need support with the online system, you can contact the contact details of this tender as indicated in the solicitation document. UNDP OFFICE SOUTH AFRICA PROCUREMENT UNIT Amendment Align TORs with clear required services Documents : Negotiation Document(s) (Before Accessing other negotiations Document(s), please click on this link ) Application Deadline: 04-Dec-25

What to check before bidding

• Issued by United Nations Development Programme.
• Located in SOUTH AFRICA.
• Source notice https://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_negotiation.cfm?nego_id=40782 on UNDP.
• Notice published 4 Dec 2025; Tenqual indexed it 3 Dec 2025.
• Deadline listed as 4 Dec 2025.
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